A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
